“Black Horse One Zero, Black Horse One Zero, this is Shovel Six. Confirming Charlie One’s sighting as follows: large armored formation passed through inter-German border Zero Three Zero Five Zulu approximate brigade in size. Composed of Papa Tango 76s, Bravo Tango Romeo 62s and Tango 72s. Inform Black Horse Six that Shovel is engaging. Out.“
The Third World War: August 1985, General Sir John Hackett, 1978.
So begins one of the apocryphal books of the Cold War, outlining one of the many ground-based beginnings to World War III, a war we planned for from the early 1950’s through to the end of the Cold War, as declared by the press sometime in the 1990s. So sure were we that the basic equation had changed that even leaders like George H. W. Bush, President, had declared a “peace dividend” as we contemplated a future with reduced tensions and less need for defense spending. Fighting the Iraqis was a mere exercise in their stupidity, as Saddham Hussein foolishly engaged US forces in Kuwait as if he were the Russians, and the Powell Doctrine was applied (specifically its call to bring all ya got if you are going to fight).
Now we have seen the Russians invade a break-away province of a former satellite. (NYTimes, free registration required). George Santayana told us “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.“ We don’t want to repeat the past, so we’ll consider the recent events in Europe, and askourselves:
- Is this West Virginia deciding to rejoin the Union after Virginia became part of the Confederacy?
- Is this the Ruhr Valley and the Remilitarization of the Rhineland?
- Is this the southern frontier variant of the scenario proposed by General Sir Hackett
- Is this just a little police action (albeit with heavy armor)
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